NEW PAGE!!!Welcome to the new Winter Storm page! No, it won't always be this long. Now that we’ve retired the Tropics page, we’ll use this page to talk about those larger storms that could impact the area as well as storm tracks, possible scenarios, and pictures… Don’t worry, our main Weather Logic page will continue to house our official forecasts. While this is our season forecast, you better read quick because the first storm is already showing up on our forecast models.
THE STARTIf you have just seconds to read this, bookmark it and come back...or just scan the pretty pictures (click any to make them larger)….For those that have 4 minutes…Prepare for 4 minutes that will change your lives!!!
You can tell it’s time because the first flakes are now in the forecast, people are a little anxious, and we’ve been asked just a “few” times what the coming months hold. We’ve researched more than 22 pages of “expert” thoughts on the winter, and there are a lot of common themes…so we have them to blame if we’re wrong!
2009 has already seen a blizzard in Denver, a World Series game postponed due to snow, a “Snow Game” for the Patriots, and record October snows in Pennsylvania. So is this the start of a memorable winter!?!?! Read on to find out…
HARSH OR HOT?So, nature sends us some signals on how harsh the winter will be. Have you seen:
• Abundant Chipmunks
• Geese flying south at a higher altitude
• Abundant Woodpeckers
• More red berries in the hedges
• Thicker-than-normal onion skins and tougher corn husks
• Plentiful berries and acorns
We’ve seen some of these occur, especially the woodpeckers. So while nature says it may be a harsh winter, what do the experts think? Overall, the experts agreed on one item: This winter has the makings of a COLD one! Now when we say cold, yeah…every winter is Cold…but this one looks to have teeth and the potential to be one you’ll talk about years from now.
Ok…to know the WHY behind the WHAT (as Megan likes to say) we have to get pretty technical. So break out your No-Doze or your espresso…and we’ll keep it as light as possible.
To understand the cold, you need to look at 3 variables: The Sun, the Ocean, and Volcanoes. Ironic I know. Most of those are associated with heat, but they all will play a major role in our winter.
#1 The Sun…is having another “Solar Minimum”. We are now at a 200 year low for sunspots (explosions on the sun that send energy our way, and though you don’t feel the heat as they happen, they do tend to warm us). These were common in the 80’s and 90’s but now it’s as if the sun is resting and we’re entering a period much like the early 1800’s and at levels not seen since the 1970s. And those of you who remember the 70’s winters, can attest to the cold. Those of you who remember the 1800s….are probably already below the freeze line.
#2 Volcanoes… have erupted all across the northern hemisphere this year. Both Alaska and Russia have the most memorable ones. Mt. Redoubt and Sarychev have produced spectacular explosions this year. Just because none of us saw the ashes come down on us, doesn’t mean we weren’t affected. They released tiny, microscopic sulfuric aerosols high into the stratosphere and they are acting like tiny mirrors reflecting solar radiation. One may say, “ok…well that’s fine for Alaska and Russia, but not here”…ahhh but the atmospheric winds have carried these mirrors and disbursed them all across the northern hemisphere. So we are just as impacted as the rest.
#3 The Ocean…This one also impacts our precipitation…but we’ll get to that later. The PDO has entered into a cooling stage and El Nino has come! So what the $#*& does that mean?
PDO… The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a shift in the water temperatures in the pacific. It goes through these cycles every 25+ years. We are just exiting the warming phase as you can see below and since it’s such an enormous body of heated water, it sparked all the global warming talks…and it’s not surprising that it caught on, but the fact of the matter is that it’s not your hairspray that’s warming the earth, it was PDO.
But I digress… The PDO entered a cooling phase just 2 years ago and continues to strengthen its cold. The Earth’s temperature has now cooled…and will continue to do so while we’re in this phase. Now don’t think that the waters are ALWAYS colder….they’re not, but overall, they are in their cooling phase.
THE STARTIf you have just seconds to read this, bookmark it and come back...or just scan the pretty pictures (click any to make them larger)….For those that have 4 minutes…Prepare for 4 minutes that will change your lives!!!
You can tell it’s time because the first flakes are now in the forecast, people are a little anxious, and we’ve been asked just a “few” times what the coming months hold. We’ve researched more than 22 pages of “expert” thoughts on the winter, and there are a lot of common themes…so we have them to blame if we’re wrong!
2009 has already seen a blizzard in Denver, a World Series game postponed due to snow, a “Snow Game” for the Patriots, and record October snows in Pennsylvania. So is this the start of a memorable winter!?!?! Read on to find out…
HARSH OR HOT?So, nature sends us some signals on how harsh the winter will be. Have you seen:
• Abundant Chipmunks
• Geese flying south at a higher altitude
• Abundant Woodpeckers
• More red berries in the hedges
• Thicker-than-normal onion skins and tougher corn husks
• Plentiful berries and acorns
We’ve seen some of these occur, especially the woodpeckers. So while nature says it may be a harsh winter, what do the experts think? Overall, the experts agreed on one item: This winter has the makings of a COLD one! Now when we say cold, yeah…every winter is Cold…but this one looks to have teeth and the potential to be one you’ll talk about years from now.
Ok…to know the WHY behind the WHAT (as Megan likes to say) we have to get pretty technical. So break out your No-Doze or your espresso…and we’ll keep it as light as possible.
To understand the cold, you need to look at 3 variables: The Sun, the Ocean, and Volcanoes. Ironic I know. Most of those are associated with heat, but they all will play a major role in our winter.
#1 The Sun…is having another “Solar Minimum”. We are now at a 200 year low for sunspots (explosions on the sun that send energy our way, and though you don’t feel the heat as they happen, they do tend to warm us). These were common in the 80’s and 90’s but now it’s as if the sun is resting and we’re entering a period much like the early 1800’s and at levels not seen since the 1970s. And those of you who remember the 70’s winters, can attest to the cold. Those of you who remember the 1800s….are probably already below the freeze line.
#2 Volcanoes… have erupted all across the northern hemisphere this year. Both Alaska and Russia have the most memorable ones. Mt. Redoubt and Sarychev have produced spectacular explosions this year. Just because none of us saw the ashes come down on us, doesn’t mean we weren’t affected. They released tiny, microscopic sulfuric aerosols high into the stratosphere and they are acting like tiny mirrors reflecting solar radiation. One may say, “ok…well that’s fine for Alaska and Russia, but not here”…ahhh but the atmospheric winds have carried these mirrors and disbursed them all across the northern hemisphere. So we are just as impacted as the rest.
#3 The Ocean…This one also impacts our precipitation…but we’ll get to that later. The PDO has entered into a cooling stage and El Nino has come! So what the $#*& does that mean?
PDO… The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a shift in the water temperatures in the pacific. It goes through these cycles every 25+ years. We are just exiting the warming phase as you can see below and since it’s such an enormous body of heated water, it sparked all the global warming talks…and it’s not surprising that it caught on, but the fact of the matter is that it’s not your hairspray that’s warming the earth, it was PDO.
But I digress… The PDO entered a cooling phase just 2 years ago and continues to strengthen its cold. The Earth’s temperature has now cooled…and will continue to do so while we’re in this phase. Now don’t think that the waters are ALWAYS colder….they’re not, but overall, they are in their cooling phase.
El Nino…Here’s where this may sound a bit contradictory. We just said that the PDO is cooling, but El Nino is associated with warming waters off the coast of Mexico. It’s just a much smaller body of water compared to the enormous PDO…and it’s fading. But El Nino years coupled with a cooling PDO have lead to memorable COLD and Snowy winters here. The last time it happened was 1976-1978…those who remember, I need to say no more.
So…final verdict is…COLD
So…final verdict is…COLD
Farmer’s Almanac Says it:
Accuweather says it:
WHEN IT’S SNOWY…BLAME THE VOLCANOS
So what about the snow and ice? This one is a bit trickier, b/c I recall seasons where we were under the average snowfall for the year but got walloped with a one big storm and it turns a tranquil winter into one to remember.
There’s really only one thing that affects our snowfall…STORMTRACK. And this season’s pattern looks to be interesting for the Ohio Valley!
As you know, we get our biggest snows from storms that come out of Texas and the southeast. For snow lovers, we need them to turn north and put us on the Northwest side of the storm. That way we have cold air and plenty of moisture to work with. This year, the track seems to be setting up along the east coast and Appalachian mountains…putting us on the Northwest side. Now, not every storm will take this path, but the big ones are what we’re watching.
One other thing to note is a big correlation between high atmosphere volcanic eruptions and a “Blocking” pattern (High Pressure) over the Eastern US. We need the blocker b/c if we didn’t the storms in the Southeast would just push off the coast of Florida and go out to sea. With the Blocker, they turn north towards us.
Ruggie Weather was pretty accurate last year (see 1st image below ). So we’re using them again this year! Notice how we’re on the northwest side of the storm track and in the “Cold and Snow”. Which will make life at Weather Logic MUCH easier than last year….when we sat right on the Snow/Ice line! If we only had a dime for every time we had to make a call …rain or ice…Rain or Ice…RAIN OR ICE?!?!?!
A Scene All too Common last year.
Here's what's in store for this year:
HOW ‘BOUT THAT 14 INCHES
14 INCHES….uh hum….That’s what we average in SNOWFALL every year. (Shame on you mind gutters). So will we eclipse that mark this year? I think so. Well, if you think back to what’s happened in the last 2 years, we got these amounts out of just 1 or 2 storms. It really just takes 1 big one to break the averages. And according to Weather America we should come close to doubling or even tripling that amount this year as they have us shaded close to the 24” – 40” range (depending on where you live).
We think we’ll see some “Southern Screamers” (not the Auburn cheerleaders) come out of Texas and head our way and as we wait on those, we’ll Alberta Clipper after Alberta Clipper to keep us in the snow.
SURVEY SAYS…COLD & SNOWY…And it all begins the week of Thanksgiving! We still expect our first flakes to fall in the last week of November. Winter will then come in fast and furious with accumulating snows in the first half of December and a followed by a Brutally cold January & February before the seasons clash again in March. There will be breaks along the way and maybe even a thaw…but we think the ground will be covered a little more with white than brown this season. So throw your scraps out for the chipmunks and let the cat crawl under the covers…because even they will be talking about THIS WINTER years from now.
